Well it's that time again. This year's Derby is another intriguing one. Of course the Derby is always a bit crazy as 20 (twice the size of most horse races), 3-year olds (roughly the equivalent of a teenager) race farther than any of them have ever run, at a track few of them have ever seen, in front of a crowd twice as big as they'll likely ever see again.
Key story lines to follow:
1 - PACE - The Derby often has a few quick starters that pull the rest of the field up to a hot pace setting up a wild dash from the back where a bunch of talented late runners try not to bump into each other while chasing a distance that raises questions for all of them. However, this year's early speed all happened to pull out due to injury. So, either a moderate pace could break out, hurting all the late runners and perhaps helping those used to running up front, OR, a surprise jack-rabbit or two could really make the race for someone. Of course, there are also a ton of big finishers so anyone trying to run from the back will be fighting for a lane.
2 - SURFACE - once again several top west-coast horses will be running on real dirt for the first time. It's impossible to predict which will rise the occasion and which will fade into the back.
3 - INVADERS - The filthy rich middle-eastern contingent is back again. Two legitimate hopefuls basically raced against each other in the UAE. They arrive in the US hoping to make their owners' dream of a Derby win a reality, but do they have the talent.
So - on the the picks.
THE MONEY
10 - Regal Ransom (30-1) won the UAE Derby in an upset over stablemate Desert Party. It seems as the Desert Party is the varsity and Regal Ransom the JV, but his early speed may set up well in THIS Derby and I like him to hold on to win. The morning line says he'll pay a decent price and the UAE Derby isn't exactly considered a top prep.
6 - Friesan Fire (5-1) posted an impressive 104 Bayer rating in the LA Derby. Only two entrants have posted better figures and his seems like a natural step up. He's from A.P Indy so the pedigree is there. FF figures to wait just off a moderate pace and attempt to move to the lead at the top of the stretch as he's done in each of his three consecutive victories.
16 - Pioneerof the Nile (4-1) has never run on real dirt. He pretty much dominated California (not always a great Derby prep region) winning 4 straight as a 3-year old, including wins over several Derby contenders. Jokey Garret Gomez chose this mount over several others including Dunkirk.
Others to watch
15 - Dunkirk (4-1) posted a blazing 108 Bayer in the Florida Derby, where he finished 2nd to Quality Road (one of the top contenders sidelined due to injury). He's well thought of as his $3.7 million yearling price tag indicates, but he's raced just 3 times, all as a 3-year old, a resume that hasn't produced a Derby winner since 1882. He's more of a late-runner but almost passed Quality Road, who likely would have been favored if he were here. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 0-21 in the Derby and desperately wants this win. Don't count him out.
13 - I Want Revenge (3-1) is the likely favorite and the only entry to have run two triple-digit Bayers. His 113 in the Gothan was downright electrifying and he seems to have really taken to the natural surface. Seems capable of adapting his style to the race, a big plus in the Derby.
Longshots that could help
20 - Flying Private (50-1) has only 1 one of 10 career starts but his breeding says this is a race for him. Son of Fusaichi Pegasus trained by D Wayne Lukas cannot be ingnored. The distance is a question and he'll need a huge effort.
11 - Chocolate Candy (20-1) hasn't run on real dirt and would prefer a hotter pace than we expect, but he's a just-off the pace sort that could find a spot in the money.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Friday, May 2, 2008
Find your big hats, it's DERBY TIME!
This year's Derby looks like a bit of a crap shoot. The morning line favorites, while talented all have serious questions. The top pick has run only 3 races; the #2 choice has never run on real dirt (just the new artificial surface); and the #3 choice ran 10th in his last start. Throw in the chance for thundershowers and the usual Derby madness that has the equine equivalent of teenagers being paraded in front of hundreds of thousands of spectators before running in a race with a field 50% bigger than they've ever seen for a distance none of them have ever traveled and you've got all the elements for a great Derby are in place.
I'll try to cover a bit about each horse, then talk about the strategy and the types of things that could impact the outcome. With such a big field, Derby strategy is always key. A fast pace isn't uncommon, but coming from the back of the pack takes a skillful jockey and a fair amount of luck. Well, on to the field:
1 - Cool Coal Man (20-1) - Finished 9th in a disasterous Blue Grass that contained six Derby entrants. Everything before that race says he's got the speed to be up with the leaders and stamina should not be a problem. Probably needs to break well to avoid getting stuck behind everyone. Breeding is excellent (Mineshaft). He needs to run a great race but is certainly a contender and worth an investment at the right price.
2 - Tale of Ekati (15-1) - Beat War Pass in the Wood. War Pass was an early Derby favorite that will not run due to injury. This horse likes to run just off the pace, so Eibar Coa will have to ride a good race to give him a shot. I think he's just a bit short of the necessary speed to win here.
3 - Anak Nakal (30-1) - Finished 8th, 7th, and 5th in his 3 Derby preps. He's seen good competition, but hasn't beaten them as a 3 year old. Figures to run from off the pace. Only a solid gold trip and a really hot pace give him a shot at the money.
4 - Court Vision (20-1) - One of the few true stretch runners in the race, he'll be flying late. 3rd in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood, he was passing horses at the end of both mile and an eight races. The extra length will help, but passing 19 horses is never easy.
5 - Eight Belles (20-1) - The only female in the race, she would have been a big favorite in the Oaks, but probably fits in the middle of this pack. She's never faced the boys and her wire-to-wire style would require a HUGE effort that she probably isn't ready for here.
6 - Z Fortune (15-1) - He likes to come from off the pace which is all well and good but he's had trouble getting a clean trip in his Derby trials. None of those were against the best of these save a 2nd to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. He's also praying for a blistering pace and clean trip through the pile.
7 - Big Truck (50-1) - Six Derby entrants ran the Blue Grass on Keenland's artifical surface. Several had problems but none finished lower than Big Truck. Previous efforts show decent talent that's kept close to slow paces. There figures to be too much talent in this race for the Truck.
8 - Visionaire (20-1) - Tends to break slowly so Lezcano will have to find some holes for him. His last was on artificial stuff and his win in the Gotham came in dense fog on a sloppy track so he's a real wildcard. If the prices gets any longer, he might be worth a flier or as a part of your exotics.
9 - Pyro (6-1) - If you throw out that crazy Blue Grass on the artificial stuff, it's hard to pick against Pyro. Only War Pass has beaten him and the speed figures are consistently at the top of the pack. He's been known to get antsy in the gate, so the big crowd and silly large field won't help. But, as the 9 horse, he'll be one of the last in, so he shouldn't have to wait long. Of all the "favorites", he seems the most likely to take the roses. Watch his price, 5-1 or better is worth an investment.
10 - Colonel John (4-1) - California horses have not been great in the Derby recently. Colonel John is the best of the West Coasters but he's NEVER run on real dirt. His workout at Churchill was impressive and the #'s say he's got the speed to stalk the pace and pass down the stretch. I say too many questions for this price. At 8-1 I'd consider it. At 4-1, take a pass.
11 - Z Humor (30-1) - He wants to be a stretch runner but his performances so far indicate that he doesn't have the stamina to do so at a mile and an eighth, much less at a mile and a quarter.
12 - Smooth Air (20-1) - Big Brown turned in the single most impressive Derby prep performance in the Florida Derby. Smooth Air was 2nd, 5 lengths back and the only horse other than Brown to come to the Derby. While I'd be surprised to see him in the winner's circle, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the money. He'll come from just off the pace and is he doesn't get bumped around too much, could be in the money.
13 - Bob Black Jack (20-1) - Another from the left coast, he's put up some impressive #'s but has also never run on the real dirt. If you're gonna take a chance on one of the west coast horses, this one makes more sense for the money. Still, I question whether he'll be able to maintain his front-running style with some of the other early speed.
14 - Monba (15-1) - He won that crazy Blue Grass but got destroyed in the Fountain of Youth. Each race had 6 Derby horses including some contenders. I like his ability to run different styles - some call that tactical speed. He's won to watch the price on. At 15-1 he's not a bad bet. If too many people push that number under 10, he's got too many questions.
15 - Adriano (30-1) - Very well bred to run this distance and he's had some success. However, he's only raced once on real dirt and spent most of last year on the turf. In fact, he finished 9th in the Fountain of Youth, his only real dirt start. A hot pace would be good for him but he might be better suited to an even longer distance. The speed may not be there for this field.
16 - Denis of Cork (20-1) - Lightly raced with 4 career starts, he won the first 3 before an uninspiring 5th in the Illinois Derby. This seems like a tough spot for him.
17 - Cowboy Cal (20-1) - Three wins and two places in his last five make Cowboy Cal someone to consider. However, he's been on the turf until his 2nd place finish on the artificial stuff in the Bluegrass. History tells us he's willing and able to stay out front with a reasonable pace, but questions about the surface make him a long-shot to monitor, not a key to your wagers.
18 - Recapturetheglory (20-1) - He won the Illinois Derby which got him here but that was his first stakes race. He's got some speed, but it would he's taking a BIG step up here and hasn't really seen the likes he'll face in this field.
19 - Gayego (15-1) - Three wins and two places in five starts. He's show the ability to run from the front but also to make a move late. He needs to get toward the front from this wide post which he has the speed to do. If he can do that without burning too much energy, he's certainly got the talent to win this thing. His impact on Big Brown's run for the front will be more critical to several others chances than his own.
20 - Big Brown (3-1) - He's only run 3 races, but he's won them all. The last 2 speed figures are equal to or better than any run by this field. His victory in the Florida Derby is one of the best Derby preps you'll ever see. BUT, he's always run from the front setting a BLISTERING pace in Florida with an opening 45.83. Coming from the widest post, he'll need to outrun 19 others to the first turn to avoid a long trip. With significant other early speed starting out wide, he's got his work cut out for him. He's got the talent to win and win big, but the lack of experience and wide post are significant obstacles. I'll be shocked if he doesn't go off at 5 or 6 to 1. Even at that price, there might be better values despite this horse's obvious talent.
Early Speed: Early speed isn't uncommon in a Derby, but rarely do so many legitimate contenders have it. On top of that, the fastest of them all are coming from the outside posts, meaning a long run across the face of a big field. Expect Big Brown, Gayego, Bob Black Jack, and Cool Coal Man to be among those vying for the early lead. Big Brown is capable of making the opening fractions dangerously fast and I expect a speed duel early with several horses attempting to run from the front.
Pace: Only Big Brown seems like he could both set a blistering pace and hold on for the win. But, a moderately pace could play very well for the other front runners. If the pace is fast, expect some of the stalkers to be well positioned with the true stretch runners having to pick their way through a crowded field. I like Pyro, Court Vision, and Monba to be flying late vying to catch Gayego, Cool Coal Man, and Big Brown.
Stretch: The pace will be key and I expect a fast one. If so, Monba and Pyro seem like good candidates. At least one or two of the speed horses will try a more stalking style. Of that group, I think Gayego and Cowboy Cal to have the best shot.
Bets: Pyro, Gayego, and Monba all seem like solid choices, especially if their morning line odds more or less hold up.
Exotics: The above three make a ton of sense and throwing in Cowboy Cal, Adriano, and Tale of Ekati to boost your payouts.
Order of finish: Pyro (9), Monba (14), Tale of Ekati (2)
Longshots: Cowboy Cal, Adriano
I'll try to cover a bit about each horse, then talk about the strategy and the types of things that could impact the outcome. With such a big field, Derby strategy is always key. A fast pace isn't uncommon, but coming from the back of the pack takes a skillful jockey and a fair amount of luck. Well, on to the field:
1 - Cool Coal Man (20-1) - Finished 9th in a disasterous Blue Grass that contained six Derby entrants. Everything before that race says he's got the speed to be up with the leaders and stamina should not be a problem. Probably needs to break well to avoid getting stuck behind everyone. Breeding is excellent (Mineshaft). He needs to run a great race but is certainly a contender and worth an investment at the right price.
2 - Tale of Ekati (15-1) - Beat War Pass in the Wood. War Pass was an early Derby favorite that will not run due to injury. This horse likes to run just off the pace, so Eibar Coa will have to ride a good race to give him a shot. I think he's just a bit short of the necessary speed to win here.
3 - Anak Nakal (30-1) - Finished 8th, 7th, and 5th in his 3 Derby preps. He's seen good competition, but hasn't beaten them as a 3 year old. Figures to run from off the pace. Only a solid gold trip and a really hot pace give him a shot at the money.
4 - Court Vision (20-1) - One of the few true stretch runners in the race, he'll be flying late. 3rd in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood, he was passing horses at the end of both mile and an eight races. The extra length will help, but passing 19 horses is never easy.
5 - Eight Belles (20-1) - The only female in the race, she would have been a big favorite in the Oaks, but probably fits in the middle of this pack. She's never faced the boys and her wire-to-wire style would require a HUGE effort that she probably isn't ready for here.
6 - Z Fortune (15-1) - He likes to come from off the pace which is all well and good but he's had trouble getting a clean trip in his Derby trials. None of those were against the best of these save a 2nd to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. He's also praying for a blistering pace and clean trip through the pile.
7 - Big Truck (50-1) - Six Derby entrants ran the Blue Grass on Keenland's artifical surface. Several had problems but none finished lower than Big Truck. Previous efforts show decent talent that's kept close to slow paces. There figures to be too much talent in this race for the Truck.
8 - Visionaire (20-1) - Tends to break slowly so Lezcano will have to find some holes for him. His last was on artificial stuff and his win in the Gotham came in dense fog on a sloppy track so he's a real wildcard. If the prices gets any longer, he might be worth a flier or as a part of your exotics.
9 - Pyro (6-1) - If you throw out that crazy Blue Grass on the artificial stuff, it's hard to pick against Pyro. Only War Pass has beaten him and the speed figures are consistently at the top of the pack. He's been known to get antsy in the gate, so the big crowd and silly large field won't help. But, as the 9 horse, he'll be one of the last in, so he shouldn't have to wait long. Of all the "favorites", he seems the most likely to take the roses. Watch his price, 5-1 or better is worth an investment.
10 - Colonel John (4-1) - California horses have not been great in the Derby recently. Colonel John is the best of the West Coasters but he's NEVER run on real dirt. His workout at Churchill was impressive and the #'s say he's got the speed to stalk the pace and pass down the stretch. I say too many questions for this price. At 8-1 I'd consider it. At 4-1, take a pass.
11 - Z Humor (30-1) - He wants to be a stretch runner but his performances so far indicate that he doesn't have the stamina to do so at a mile and an eighth, much less at a mile and a quarter.
12 - Smooth Air (20-1) - Big Brown turned in the single most impressive Derby prep performance in the Florida Derby. Smooth Air was 2nd, 5 lengths back and the only horse other than Brown to come to the Derby. While I'd be surprised to see him in the winner's circle, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the money. He'll come from just off the pace and is he doesn't get bumped around too much, could be in the money.
13 - Bob Black Jack (20-1) - Another from the left coast, he's put up some impressive #'s but has also never run on the real dirt. If you're gonna take a chance on one of the west coast horses, this one makes more sense for the money. Still, I question whether he'll be able to maintain his front-running style with some of the other early speed.
14 - Monba (15-1) - He won that crazy Blue Grass but got destroyed in the Fountain of Youth. Each race had 6 Derby horses including some contenders. I like his ability to run different styles - some call that tactical speed. He's won to watch the price on. At 15-1 he's not a bad bet. If too many people push that number under 10, he's got too many questions.
15 - Adriano (30-1) - Very well bred to run this distance and he's had some success. However, he's only raced once on real dirt and spent most of last year on the turf. In fact, he finished 9th in the Fountain of Youth, his only real dirt start. A hot pace would be good for him but he might be better suited to an even longer distance. The speed may not be there for this field.
16 - Denis of Cork (20-1) - Lightly raced with 4 career starts, he won the first 3 before an uninspiring 5th in the Illinois Derby. This seems like a tough spot for him.
17 - Cowboy Cal (20-1) - Three wins and two places in his last five make Cowboy Cal someone to consider. However, he's been on the turf until his 2nd place finish on the artificial stuff in the Bluegrass. History tells us he's willing and able to stay out front with a reasonable pace, but questions about the surface make him a long-shot to monitor, not a key to your wagers.
18 - Recapturetheglory (20-1) - He won the Illinois Derby which got him here but that was his first stakes race. He's got some speed, but it would he's taking a BIG step up here and hasn't really seen the likes he'll face in this field.
19 - Gayego (15-1) - Three wins and two places in five starts. He's show the ability to run from the front but also to make a move late. He needs to get toward the front from this wide post which he has the speed to do. If he can do that without burning too much energy, he's certainly got the talent to win this thing. His impact on Big Brown's run for the front will be more critical to several others chances than his own.
20 - Big Brown (3-1) - He's only run 3 races, but he's won them all. The last 2 speed figures are equal to or better than any run by this field. His victory in the Florida Derby is one of the best Derby preps you'll ever see. BUT, he's always run from the front setting a BLISTERING pace in Florida with an opening 45.83. Coming from the widest post, he'll need to outrun 19 others to the first turn to avoid a long trip. With significant other early speed starting out wide, he's got his work cut out for him. He's got the talent to win and win big, but the lack of experience and wide post are significant obstacles. I'll be shocked if he doesn't go off at 5 or 6 to 1. Even at that price, there might be better values despite this horse's obvious talent.
Early Speed: Early speed isn't uncommon in a Derby, but rarely do so many legitimate contenders have it. On top of that, the fastest of them all are coming from the outside posts, meaning a long run across the face of a big field. Expect Big Brown, Gayego, Bob Black Jack, and Cool Coal Man to be among those vying for the early lead. Big Brown is capable of making the opening fractions dangerously fast and I expect a speed duel early with several horses attempting to run from the front.
Pace: Only Big Brown seems like he could both set a blistering pace and hold on for the win. But, a moderately pace could play very well for the other front runners. If the pace is fast, expect some of the stalkers to be well positioned with the true stretch runners having to pick their way through a crowded field. I like Pyro, Court Vision, and Monba to be flying late vying to catch Gayego, Cool Coal Man, and Big Brown.
Stretch: The pace will be key and I expect a fast one. If so, Monba and Pyro seem like good candidates. At least one or two of the speed horses will try a more stalking style. Of that group, I think Gayego and Cowboy Cal to have the best shot.
Bets: Pyro, Gayego, and Monba all seem like solid choices, especially if their morning line odds more or less hold up.
Exotics: The above three make a ton of sense and throwing in Cowboy Cal, Adriano, and Tale of Ekati to boost your payouts.
Order of finish: Pyro (9), Monba (14), Tale of Ekati (2)
Longshots: Cowboy Cal, Adriano
Friday, February 22, 2008
Can't see the money through the Fogg
The Reds signed Josh Fogg to a one-year, one-million dollar deal yesterday. This would be otherwise unremarkable except that Fogg had previously turned down a $5 million offer from the Colorado Rockies (http://www.rotowire.com/roto_to_gnews.htm?ID=242915&sport=mlb).
Two things come to mind. First, fire your agent Josh. Yes, you had a remarkable run of solid efforts against opposing aces, culminating in the Rockies reaching the World Series. But, pitchers with a 5-year track record of mediocre performances should not be greedy. Your relatively paltry compensation is proof enough. Secondly, look out Cinncy. Fogg has never been a great had either great control or a significant ability to make hitters swing an miss (witness his career-high 94K's in 165.2 IP last year). While Colorado rebuilt there team with superior athleticism and defense, Mr. Fogg now pitches with an aging Griffey in right, a plodding Dunn in left, a converted IF in center, and average defenders pretty much everywhere else. Yikes, 6.00 here we come.
Two things come to mind. First, fire your agent Josh. Yes, you had a remarkable run of solid efforts against opposing aces, culminating in the Rockies reaching the World Series. But, pitchers with a 5-year track record of mediocre performances should not be greedy. Your relatively paltry compensation is proof enough. Secondly, look out Cinncy. Fogg has never been a great had either great control or a significant ability to make hitters swing an miss (witness his career-high 94K's in 165.2 IP last year). While Colorado rebuilt there team with superior athleticism and defense, Mr. Fogg now pitches with an aging Griffey in right, a plodding Dunn in left, a converted IF in center, and average defenders pretty much everywhere else. Yikes, 6.00 here we come.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Step to the back of the class
What the Yankees did yesterday, offering Joe Torre an incentive-laden, one-year deal that represented a pay cut was classless. Torre has taken the Yankees to 12 straight post-seasons, won four world-series, and turned what was once known as the Bronx Zoo into one of the most respected clubhouses in MLB. Sure, all of that was possible in large part because of the extravagant payroll the Yankees have maintained. But New York has always been a large market team, but they haven't always had the reputation for class to force Jason Giambi or Johnny Damon to get a hair cut. Joe Torre brought them that.
If the geniuses in Yankee management came to the conclusion that Torre's time had come, then they should have found a way to show him the door with some semblance of the class that Torre showed in 12 seasons at the helm. Alas, these are the same geniuses that brought you Jason Giambi for seven years and $120M (he's owed $21M next year, plus a $5M buyout of his $22M option for '09). Johnny Damon for four years and $52M was another brain fart these experts had.
Torre was good enough to manage these overpaid, over-the-hill former stars to the playoffs. He had enough clout and respect to convince two of the baseball's truly free spirits to clean up when they arrive. He even managed to wring consider value out of their diminishing skills. However, he won't be around when they finish their contracts. Good luck to the next guy. If he lacks Torre's clout, he may need to borrow Torre's scissors. I seriously doubt we'll see a return of Cave Men to NBC for the 2008 season, but he may be out in left field as the class exits the Bronx.
If the geniuses in Yankee management came to the conclusion that Torre's time had come, then they should have found a way to show him the door with some semblance of the class that Torre showed in 12 seasons at the helm. Alas, these are the same geniuses that brought you Jason Giambi for seven years and $120M (he's owed $21M next year, plus a $5M buyout of his $22M option for '09). Johnny Damon for four years and $52M was another brain fart these experts had.
Torre was good enough to manage these overpaid, over-the-hill former stars to the playoffs. He had enough clout and respect to convince two of the baseball's truly free spirits to clean up when they arrive. He even managed to wring consider value out of their diminishing skills. However, he won't be around when they finish their contracts. Good luck to the next guy. If he lacks Torre's clout, he may need to borrow Torre's scissors. I seriously doubt we'll see a return of Cave Men to NBC for the 2008 season, but he may be out in left field as the class exits the Bronx.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Lovie-Turner Overdrive
Ok, it's not exactly sports business but hey, I'm a Bear fan and I can't take it anymore. How in the world an NFL offensive coordinator can do some of the stuff that Ron Turner does and keep his job amazes me.
Case in point, late 2nd quarter, Bears are attempting to mount a late drive to take the lead prior to half time. They get stuck in a fourth and short, inches really. Now, I give Lovie credit for showing some stones and going for it in this situation. This is where Ron Turner lost what little respect he had from me. The Bears line up in a spread, 3-wide formation with a fullback only in the backfield. Now, anyone who's watched the Bears play in the last 50 years knows they're not throwing the ball, so the spread doesn't fool anybody. But to then line up without a legitimate RB in the backfield is inexcusable. There was no doubt in anyone's mind that a QB sneak was coming. Now why not put Benson in the backfield, even as an ace back? Make a DT or LB at least consider that a handoff might be coming. As it turns out, a huge second effort by Griese got the first down despite the play being stuffed. Of course, he immediately fumbled before being taken down, ending the drive.
DRIVING ME CRAZY!!!!!
Case in point, late 2nd quarter, Bears are attempting to mount a late drive to take the lead prior to half time. They get stuck in a fourth and short, inches really. Now, I give Lovie credit for showing some stones and going for it in this situation. This is where Ron Turner lost what little respect he had from me. The Bears line up in a spread, 3-wide formation with a fullback only in the backfield. Now, anyone who's watched the Bears play in the last 50 years knows they're not throwing the ball, so the spread doesn't fool anybody. But to then line up without a legitimate RB in the backfield is inexcusable. There was no doubt in anyone's mind that a QB sneak was coming. Now why not put Benson in the backfield, even as an ace back? Make a DT or LB at least consider that a handoff might be coming. As it turns out, a huge second effort by Griese got the first down despite the play being stuffed. Of course, he immediately fumbled before being taken down, ending the drive.
DRIVING ME CRAZY!!!!!
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