Red Sox Trick?

The Red Sox have outbid the rest of the MLB to acquire the right to negotiate a contract with Daisuke Matsuzaka, a 25-year old pitcher from Japan. The Red Sox bid of $51.1 million dollars for the exclusive right to negotiate with Matsuzaka. The team has 30 days to come to an agreement with Scott Boras client. If they fail to reach an agreement, Matsuzaka stays with his current team in Japan and the Red Sox keep their $51.1 million.

This raises some interesting circumstances. First, the Red Sox have actually paid nothing (so far) for the ability to keep Matsuzaka from their toughest rivals. The Mets are rumored to have been the runner up at $39 million. Even if the Red Sox fail to sign the player, he can't be re-posted (more on that later) for another year. The Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka's Japanese team, only get the $51.1 million if he signs with the Red Sox. In fact, because he has 8 years of service, Matsuzaka would be a free agent after just two more years in the Japanese league. At that point, he would no longer be subject to the posting system.

As it is, his only choices are to sign with Boston, or return to his contract with Seibu. I'm hearing that he's paid less than $5 million per season there, but I haven't been able to dig up the info yet. If so, he's forced to make the choice between 2 more seasons in Japan before a giant payday in the States (he could go for $18-$20 million per season as a true free agent).

The Red Sox on the other hand, would need to be getting a fair deal for the total price. That means, if he's really a $15 million pitcher and he's only willing to sign a 3-year deal with an out-clause (meaning he could be a free agent after the 2009 season), then they should be willing to go as high as an additional $9 million over three years. That won't come close to Boras' expectations.

But, what will he settle for? Assuming that he gets out clause allowing him to be a free agent in 3 years, Matsuzaka will be better off only if he makes more in those three years by signing with Boston. The question is, will the Red Sox make it worth his while, or are they just keeping him from the Yankees and Mets?