Derby Picks/Analysis

I've been doing Derby picks with decidedly mixed results for the past several years. This year, however will be the first online. So please excuse the brief departure from the topics of Sports Business and related for a little pony picking.

Race Summary
The Kentucky Derby is always difficult to pick. Aside from dealing with an unheard of 20 horse field, the Derby requires the handicapper to assess 3-year old horses, often just a handful of races into their careers. Add to that the uncertain reaction of these young animals to the roaring crowd, track which few have ever seen, and the general luck of racing and handicapping the Derby is revealed as the greatest of challenges.

The weather in Louisville could be a big part of the story this year. It rained for most of the day Friday and the track was in less than perfect shape. Chances of rain are good again on Derby Day. For the purposes of this report, we're going to assume that the track will be wet, throwing in yet another wild card. Wet tracks tend to take a little more energy out of horses, meaning that stretch runners get a little more consideration from this handicapper.

The other big story is always the pace. A lightning fast pace can set up a big stretch run. A more moderate pace will favor those up near the front. This year's Derby lacks the bullet-speed front-runners of the past few years. That said, a big field, and mud flying everywhere usually pushes a few horses to the front. I'm counting on a talented horse coming from off the pace.

Horse By Horse
I'll roll through the entrants one at a time in order of post position and then give my picks at the end.

Sedgefield 1 (50-1) - He won an allowance race before finishing 2nd in two starts (one on the turf). He's really bred as a turf horse and has run 5 of 8 career races on that surface. The speed numbers say he can't hang with this crew, but at 50-1, with that turf breeding, I like the longshot to be in the picture late in this one.

Curlin 2 (7-2) - No horse that didn't race as a 2-year old has won the Derby since 1882. That said, Curlin 3-3 lifetime, including 2 graded stakes wins and the best Beyer figure (122 in the Arkansas Derby) in the field. The inside post may force him to make a run for the front and I think we may have seen this horse's best. Though he's as talented as any horse in the field, I'm staying away at the short price.

Zanjero 3 (30-1) - He's finished 3rd in his last three starts, including a 4 horse photo in the Blue Grass where he was nipped by Dominican and Street Sense. He'll be flying late but will need a lot of things to fall his way to end up in front of the 5 horses in this field that have beaten him in his last 4 races.

Storm in May 4 (30-1) - He's been in the money in 12 of 13 lifetime starts. He's also run well in 3 turf starts since December. While his 2nd place finish (by 10 1/2 to Curlin) in the Arkansas is only mildly impressive, I like the late running style at the classic mile and a quarter distance and the turf pedigree. The rain makes this long shot worth considering.

Imawildandcrazyguy 5 (50-1) - Hasn't won this year so I won't even mention he's a stretch runner that could be moving late. Stay away.

Cowtown Cat 6 (20-1) - Impressively won the Illinois Derby, but really hasn't faced anybody. The slow pace in Illinois set up the impressive ride. The Cat won't be so lucky in Kentucky.

Street Sense 7 (4-1) - He won the Breeder's Cup Juveneile. I'm not a believer in the Juvey jinx and his 3 110+ Beyer figures are impressive. You can't question his quality as he's been in the think of the biggest of Derby preps. I think the weather works against one of the early favorites who's price is likely to rise as the rain falls.

Hard Spun 8 (15-1) - He's won 5 of 6 career starts but hasn't raced since the LanesEnd six weeks ago. The layoff and lack of top notch competition tells me he's got too much to overcome.

Liquidity 9 (30-1) - He's won just once in 7 career starts and has been beaten by several of the Derby contenders. No clue how he'll due if it's muddy, but I don't see it from this one.

Teuflesberg 10 (30-1) - He's run 15 times, more than any other entrant. He's won of the few speed horses in the race, so expect to hear his name called early. I don't see him holding up for the whole mile and a quarter.

Bwana Bull 11 (50-1) - He's got the breeding and was showing great form before finishing a disappointing 5th to Tiago at Santa Anita. Put up his best Beyer number on an off track so could see some weather money. I think he'll have a nice career but isn't quite ready for this one.

Nobiz Like Shobiz 12 ( 8-1) - He's won 3 of 4 in big preps, beating several of the contenders. He's run 6 straight triple digit beyer ratings. This all points to a solid contender. However, they put the blinkers on last time because he got distracted. I think the Derby Day hype could be more than this talented horse is up for.

Sam P. 13 (20-1) - He's always around the money but hasn't really impressed when faced with top competition. He's probably a little over his head and needs a perfect trip to be in the money.

Scat Daddy 14 (10-1) - He the best of the Florida horses, winning his last two. He's certainly one of the horses to watch and worth including in your exotics. However, I think he lacks the stamina to win if it's wet.

Tiago 15 (15-1) - While he's a popular pick amongst some of the commentators, I think his short, 4-race career isn't enough to sway me. He won impressively in the Santa Anita and has a stretch running style, so he can't be discounted.

Circular Quay 16 (8-1) - He's been off for eight weeks and will be trying to circle the field with his back of the pack style. That's tough to pull off in such a big field so he probably needs a lightning fast pace to have a chance.

Stormello 17 (30-1) - He generally runs near the front but seems to lack the stamina to wire a field like this. The lack of early speed is good. The weather, the field, and the stamina are not.

Any Given Saturday 18 (12-1) - He's a talented horse that was well thought of earlier in the season. He's been steadily declining and would require a huge bounce-back effort here.

Dominican 19 (20-1) - He's been steadily improving with impressive wins in his last two. The pedigree is there as is the late-running style. The only question is the trip from the outside and the weather. One worth watching.

Great Hunter 20 (15-1) - He's a consistent horse, in-the-money 8 of 9 times. He didn't get a clean look in his last, finishing 5th. Forgive that one and he'd be right in with the favorites. I like the price.

The Picks
It's not an easy race to pick with a ton of consistent performers, but here goes. I like Dominican, Great Hunter, Storm in May, and Sedgefield based on the weather and their running style. That said, this might be an even bigger shot in the dark than most Derbies and I'm throwing out there four horses that opened at 20-1, 15-1, 30-1, and 50-1. I guess that's why I'm not a professional handicapper.

I see an exciting race with a moderate pace and a huge pack within striking distance down the stretch. A big pack means that jockey's and luck are key. I'm taking Great Hunter to win it, with Dominican and Sedgefield rounding out the money. These are all long shots so watch the odds and get the most bang for your buck as post time nears. Good luck!

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