Derby Preview 2009

Well it's that time again. This year's Derby is another intriguing one. Of course the Derby is always a bit crazy as 20 (twice the size of most horse races), 3-year olds (roughly the equivalent of a teenager) race farther than any of them have ever run, at a track few of them have ever seen, in front of a crowd twice as big as they'll likely ever see again.

Key story lines to follow:
1 - PACE - The Derby often has a few quick starters that pull the rest of the field up to a hot pace setting up a wild dash from the back where a bunch of talented late runners try not to bump into each other while chasing a distance that raises questions for all of them. However, this year's early speed all happened to pull out due to injury. So, either a moderate pace could break out, hurting all the late runners and perhaps helping those used to running up front, OR, a surprise jack-rabbit or two could really make the race for someone. Of course, there are also a ton of big finishers so anyone trying to run from the back will be fighting for a lane.

2 - SURFACE - once again several top west-coast horses will be running on real dirt for the first time. It's impossible to predict which will rise the occasion and which will fade into the back.

3 - INVADERS - The filthy rich middle-eastern contingent is back again. Two legitimate hopefuls basically raced against each other in the UAE. They arrive in the US hoping to make their owners' dream of a Derby win a reality, but do they have the talent.

So - on the the picks.

THE MONEY
10 - Regal Ransom (30-1) won the UAE Derby in an upset over stablemate Desert Party. It seems as the Desert Party is the varsity and Regal Ransom the JV, but his early speed may set up well in THIS Derby and I like him to hold on to win. The morning line says he'll pay a decent price and the UAE Derby isn't exactly considered a top prep.

6 - Friesan Fire (5-1) posted an impressive 104 Bayer rating in the LA Derby. Only two entrants have posted better figures and his seems like a natural step up. He's from A.P Indy so the pedigree is there. FF figures to wait just off a moderate pace and attempt to move to the lead at the top of the stretch as he's done in each of his three consecutive victories.

16 - Pioneerof the Nile (4-1) has never run on real dirt. He pretty much dominated California (not always a great Derby prep region) winning 4 straight as a 3-year old, including wins over several Derby contenders. Jokey Garret Gomez chose this mount over several others including Dunkirk.

Others to watch

15 - Dunkirk (4-1) posted a blazing 108 Bayer in the Florida Derby, where he finished 2nd to Quality Road (one of the top contenders sidelined due to injury). He's well thought of as his $3.7 million yearling price tag indicates, but he's raced just 3 times, all as a 3-year old, a resume that hasn't produced a Derby winner since 1882. He's more of a late-runner but almost passed Quality Road, who likely would have been favored if he were here. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 0-21 in the Derby and desperately wants this win. Don't count him out.

13 - I Want Revenge (3-1) is the likely favorite and the only entry to have run two triple-digit Bayers. His 113 in the Gothan was downright electrifying and he seems to have really taken to the natural surface. Seems capable of adapting his style to the race, a big plus in the Derby.

Longshots that could help
20 - Flying Private (50-1) has only 1 one of 10 career starts but his breeding says this is a race for him. Son of Fusaichi Pegasus trained by D Wayne Lukas cannot be ingnored. The distance is a question and he'll need a huge effort.

11 - Chocolate Candy (20-1) hasn't run on real dirt and would prefer a hotter pace than we expect, but he's a just-off the pace sort that could find a spot in the money.