Ok, it's not exactly sports business but hey, I'm a Bear fan and I can't take it anymore. How in the world an NFL offensive coordinator can do some of the stuff that Ron Turner does and keep his job amazes me.
Case in point, late 2nd quarter, Bears are attempting to mount a late drive to take the lead prior to half time. They get stuck in a fourth and short, inches really. Now, I give Lovie credit for showing some stones and going for it in this situation. This is where Ron Turner lost what little respect he had from me. The Bears line up in a spread, 3-wide formation with a fullback only in the backfield. Now, anyone who's watched the Bears play in the last 50 years knows they're not throwing the ball, so the spread doesn't fool anybody. But to then line up without a legitimate RB in the backfield is inexcusable. There was no doubt in anyone's mind that a QB sneak was coming. Now why not put Benson in the backfield, even as an ace back? Make a DT or LB at least consider that a handoff might be coming. As it turns out, a huge second effort by Griese got the first down despite the play being stuffed. Of course, he immediately fumbled before being taken down, ending the drive.
DRIVING ME CRAZY!!!!!
Monday, October 15, 2007
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Sick of the BTN & Comcast crying
Is anyone else out there sick of listening to the Big Ten Network and Comcast whine? I mean, both sides are making persuasive arguments, but I'm done caring. I'm honestly to the point where I change the radio or TV station just avoid listening to their ads.
I mean seriously, what other industry actually subjects the general public to their private contract negotiations. These ads are worse than political spots.
I urge you to stop listening or taking any action based on these ads.
Comcast, you're right, the BTN is being ridiculous, insisting that it be on basic cable and charging outrageous amounts for mediocre content. If you don't think it's worth it for your customers, then don't sign up.
BTN, if you're business model depends on the deal terms you're demanding, maybe you should re-evaluate your business model. Quite frankly, I find the pursuit of a TV network to border on anti-trust violations. You're an academic and athletic league, why do you need your own network. If there was truly a demand for Big Ten gymnastics, wouldn't some other commercial outlet already be pursuing these rights? Since their not, should you really be charging more than any other cable outlet?
Like I said, these are all valid points. NOW STOP ADVERTISING THEM! Get in a room and figure it out. Or don't, just stop subjecting me to your perfectly unreasonable private dispute.
I mean seriously, what other industry actually subjects the general public to their private contract negotiations. These ads are worse than political spots.
I urge you to stop listening or taking any action based on these ads.
Comcast, you're right, the BTN is being ridiculous, insisting that it be on basic cable and charging outrageous amounts for mediocre content. If you don't think it's worth it for your customers, then don't sign up.
BTN, if you're business model depends on the deal terms you're demanding, maybe you should re-evaluate your business model. Quite frankly, I find the pursuit of a TV network to border on anti-trust violations. You're an academic and athletic league, why do you need your own network. If there was truly a demand for Big Ten gymnastics, wouldn't some other commercial outlet already be pursuing these rights? Since their not, should you really be charging more than any other cable outlet?
Like I said, these are all valid points. NOW STOP ADVERTISING THEM! Get in a room and figure it out. Or don't, just stop subjecting me to your perfectly unreasonable private dispute.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
OUCH!
If you haven't already seen it, check out Bud Black taking down Milton Bradley: http://youtube.com/watch?v=Iutmc9zR5x4
Bradley went down with a torn ACL, and the Padres playoff and World Series dreams may not be far behind. What a terrible situation. I'm sure many lawyers out there will be in a hurry to blame Bud Black or the umpire Mike Winters who certainly seemed to instigate things. Still, at the end of the day, the blame should fall on Milton himself, who allowed a cocky umpire to show him up.
On the flip side, I hope MLB deals harshly with an umpire that became part of the show. Umpires are like offensive lineman, doing their best when you don't hear about them.
Bradley went down with a torn ACL, and the Padres playoff and World Series dreams may not be far behind. What a terrible situation. I'm sure many lawyers out there will be in a hurry to blame Bud Black or the umpire Mike Winters who certainly seemed to instigate things. Still, at the end of the day, the blame should fall on Milton himself, who allowed a cocky umpire to show him up.
On the flip side, I hope MLB deals harshly with an umpire that became part of the show. Umpires are like offensive lineman, doing their best when you don't hear about them.
Friday, May 4, 2007
Derby Picks/Analysis
I've been doing Derby picks with decidedly mixed results for the past several years. This year, however will be the first online. So please excuse the brief departure from the topics of Sports Business and related for a little pony picking.
Race Summary
The Kentucky Derby is always difficult to pick. Aside from dealing with an unheard of 20 horse field, the Derby requires the handicapper to assess 3-year old horses, often just a handful of races into their careers. Add to that the uncertain reaction of these young animals to the roaring crowd, track which few have ever seen, and the general luck of racing and handicapping the Derby is revealed as the greatest of challenges.
The weather in Louisville could be a big part of the story this year. It rained for most of the day Friday and the track was in less than perfect shape. Chances of rain are good again on Derby Day. For the purposes of this report, we're going to assume that the track will be wet, throwing in yet another wild card. Wet tracks tend to take a little more energy out of horses, meaning that stretch runners get a little more consideration from this handicapper.
The other big story is always the pace. A lightning fast pace can set up a big stretch run. A more moderate pace will favor those up near the front. This year's Derby lacks the bullet-speed front-runners of the past few years. That said, a big field, and mud flying everywhere usually pushes a few horses to the front. I'm counting on a talented horse coming from off the pace.
Horse By Horse
I'll roll through the entrants one at a time in order of post position and then give my picks at the end.
Sedgefield 1 (50-1) - He won an allowance race before finishing 2nd in two starts (one on the turf). He's really bred as a turf horse and has run 5 of 8 career races on that surface. The speed numbers say he can't hang with this crew, but at 50-1, with that turf breeding, I like the longshot to be in the picture late in this one.
Curlin 2 (7-2) - No horse that didn't race as a 2-year old has won the Derby since 1882. That said, Curlin 3-3 lifetime, including 2 graded stakes wins and the best Beyer figure (122 in the Arkansas Derby) in the field. The inside post may force him to make a run for the front and I think we may have seen this horse's best. Though he's as talented as any horse in the field, I'm staying away at the short price.
Zanjero 3 (30-1) - He's finished 3rd in his last three starts, including a 4 horse photo in the Blue Grass where he was nipped by Dominican and Street Sense. He'll be flying late but will need a lot of things to fall his way to end up in front of the 5 horses in this field that have beaten him in his last 4 races.
Storm in May 4 (30-1) - He's been in the money in 12 of 13 lifetime starts. He's also run well in 3 turf starts since December. While his 2nd place finish (by 10 1/2 to Curlin) in the Arkansas is only mildly impressive, I like the late running style at the classic mile and a quarter distance and the turf pedigree. The rain makes this long shot worth considering.
Imawildandcrazyguy 5 (50-1) - Hasn't won this year so I won't even mention he's a stretch runner that could be moving late. Stay away.
Cowtown Cat 6 (20-1) - Impressively won the Illinois Derby, but really hasn't faced anybody. The slow pace in Illinois set up the impressive ride. The Cat won't be so lucky in Kentucky.
Street Sense 7 (4-1) - He won the Breeder's Cup Juveneile. I'm not a believer in the Juvey jinx and his 3 110+ Beyer figures are impressive. You can't question his quality as he's been in the think of the biggest of Derby preps. I think the weather works against one of the early favorites who's price is likely to rise as the rain falls.
Hard Spun 8 (15-1) - He's won 5 of 6 career starts but hasn't raced since the LanesEnd six weeks ago. The layoff and lack of top notch competition tells me he's got too much to overcome.
Liquidity 9 (30-1) - He's won just once in 7 career starts and has been beaten by several of the Derby contenders. No clue how he'll due if it's muddy, but I don't see it from this one.
Teuflesberg 10 (30-1) - He's run 15 times, more than any other entrant. He's won of the few speed horses in the race, so expect to hear his name called early. I don't see him holding up for the whole mile and a quarter.
Bwana Bull 11 (50-1) - He's got the breeding and was showing great form before finishing a disappointing 5th to Tiago at Santa Anita. Put up his best Beyer number on an off track so could see some weather money. I think he'll have a nice career but isn't quite ready for this one.
Nobiz Like Shobiz 12 ( 8-1) - He's won 3 of 4 in big preps, beating several of the contenders. He's run 6 straight triple digit beyer ratings. This all points to a solid contender. However, they put the blinkers on last time because he got distracted. I think the Derby Day hype could be more than this talented horse is up for.
Sam P. 13 (20-1) - He's always around the money but hasn't really impressed when faced with top competition. He's probably a little over his head and needs a perfect trip to be in the money.
Scat Daddy 14 (10-1) - He the best of the Florida horses, winning his last two. He's certainly one of the horses to watch and worth including in your exotics. However, I think he lacks the stamina to win if it's wet.
Tiago 15 (15-1) - While he's a popular pick amongst some of the commentators, I think his short, 4-race career isn't enough to sway me. He won impressively in the Santa Anita and has a stretch running style, so he can't be discounted.
Circular Quay 16 (8-1) - He's been off for eight weeks and will be trying to circle the field with his back of the pack style. That's tough to pull off in such a big field so he probably needs a lightning fast pace to have a chance.
Stormello 17 (30-1) - He generally runs near the front but seems to lack the stamina to wire a field like this. The lack of early speed is good. The weather, the field, and the stamina are not.
Any Given Saturday 18 (12-1) - He's a talented horse that was well thought of earlier in the season. He's been steadily declining and would require a huge bounce-back effort here.
Dominican 19 (20-1) - He's been steadily improving with impressive wins in his last two. The pedigree is there as is the late-running style. The only question is the trip from the outside and the weather. One worth watching.
Great Hunter 20 (15-1) - He's a consistent horse, in-the-money 8 of 9 times. He didn't get a clean look in his last, finishing 5th. Forgive that one and he'd be right in with the favorites. I like the price.
The Picks
It's not an easy race to pick with a ton of consistent performers, but here goes. I like Dominican, Great Hunter, Storm in May, and Sedgefield based on the weather and their running style. That said, this might be an even bigger shot in the dark than most Derbies and I'm throwing out there four horses that opened at 20-1, 15-1, 30-1, and 50-1. I guess that's why I'm not a professional handicapper.
I see an exciting race with a moderate pace and a huge pack within striking distance down the stretch. A big pack means that jockey's and luck are key. I'm taking Great Hunter to win it, with Dominican and Sedgefield rounding out the money. These are all long shots so watch the odds and get the most bang for your buck as post time nears. Good luck!
20 - 19 - 1
Race Summary
The Kentucky Derby is always difficult to pick. Aside from dealing with an unheard of 20 horse field, the Derby requires the handicapper to assess 3-year old horses, often just a handful of races into their careers. Add to that the uncertain reaction of these young animals to the roaring crowd, track which few have ever seen, and the general luck of racing and handicapping the Derby is revealed as the greatest of challenges.
The weather in Louisville could be a big part of the story this year. It rained for most of the day Friday and the track was in less than perfect shape. Chances of rain are good again on Derby Day. For the purposes of this report, we're going to assume that the track will be wet, throwing in yet another wild card. Wet tracks tend to take a little more energy out of horses, meaning that stretch runners get a little more consideration from this handicapper.
The other big story is always the pace. A lightning fast pace can set up a big stretch run. A more moderate pace will favor those up near the front. This year's Derby lacks the bullet-speed front-runners of the past few years. That said, a big field, and mud flying everywhere usually pushes a few horses to the front. I'm counting on a talented horse coming from off the pace.
Horse By Horse
I'll roll through the entrants one at a time in order of post position and then give my picks at the end.
Sedgefield 1 (50-1) - He won an allowance race before finishing 2nd in two starts (one on the turf). He's really bred as a turf horse and has run 5 of 8 career races on that surface. The speed numbers say he can't hang with this crew, but at 50-1, with that turf breeding, I like the longshot to be in the picture late in this one.
Curlin 2 (7-2) - No horse that didn't race as a 2-year old has won the Derby since 1882. That said, Curlin 3-3 lifetime, including 2 graded stakes wins and the best Beyer figure (122 in the Arkansas Derby) in the field. The inside post may force him to make a run for the front and I think we may have seen this horse's best. Though he's as talented as any horse in the field, I'm staying away at the short price.
Zanjero 3 (30-1) - He's finished 3rd in his last three starts, including a 4 horse photo in the Blue Grass where he was nipped by Dominican and Street Sense. He'll be flying late but will need a lot of things to fall his way to end up in front of the 5 horses in this field that have beaten him in his last 4 races.
Storm in May 4 (30-1) - He's been in the money in 12 of 13 lifetime starts. He's also run well in 3 turf starts since December. While his 2nd place finish (by 10 1/2 to Curlin) in the Arkansas is only mildly impressive, I like the late running style at the classic mile and a quarter distance and the turf pedigree. The rain makes this long shot worth considering.
Imawildandcrazyguy 5 (50-1) - Hasn't won this year so I won't even mention he's a stretch runner that could be moving late. Stay away.
Cowtown Cat 6 (20-1) - Impressively won the Illinois Derby, but really hasn't faced anybody. The slow pace in Illinois set up the impressive ride. The Cat won't be so lucky in Kentucky.
Street Sense 7 (4-1) - He won the Breeder's Cup Juveneile. I'm not a believer in the Juvey jinx and his 3 110+ Beyer figures are impressive. You can't question his quality as he's been in the think of the biggest of Derby preps. I think the weather works against one of the early favorites who's price is likely to rise as the rain falls.
Hard Spun 8 (15-1) - He's won 5 of 6 career starts but hasn't raced since the LanesEnd six weeks ago. The layoff and lack of top notch competition tells me he's got too much to overcome.
Liquidity 9 (30-1) - He's won just once in 7 career starts and has been beaten by several of the Derby contenders. No clue how he'll due if it's muddy, but I don't see it from this one.
Teuflesberg 10 (30-1) - He's run 15 times, more than any other entrant. He's won of the few speed horses in the race, so expect to hear his name called early. I don't see him holding up for the whole mile and a quarter.
Bwana Bull 11 (50-1) - He's got the breeding and was showing great form before finishing a disappointing 5th to Tiago at Santa Anita. Put up his best Beyer number on an off track so could see some weather money. I think he'll have a nice career but isn't quite ready for this one.
Nobiz Like Shobiz 12 ( 8-1) - He's won 3 of 4 in big preps, beating several of the contenders. He's run 6 straight triple digit beyer ratings. This all points to a solid contender. However, they put the blinkers on last time because he got distracted. I think the Derby Day hype could be more than this talented horse is up for.
Sam P. 13 (20-1) - He's always around the money but hasn't really impressed when faced with top competition. He's probably a little over his head and needs a perfect trip to be in the money.
Scat Daddy 14 (10-1) - He the best of the Florida horses, winning his last two. He's certainly one of the horses to watch and worth including in your exotics. However, I think he lacks the stamina to win if it's wet.
Tiago 15 (15-1) - While he's a popular pick amongst some of the commentators, I think his short, 4-race career isn't enough to sway me. He won impressively in the Santa Anita and has a stretch running style, so he can't be discounted.
Circular Quay 16 (8-1) - He's been off for eight weeks and will be trying to circle the field with his back of the pack style. That's tough to pull off in such a big field so he probably needs a lightning fast pace to have a chance.
Stormello 17 (30-1) - He generally runs near the front but seems to lack the stamina to wire a field like this. The lack of early speed is good. The weather, the field, and the stamina are not.
Any Given Saturday 18 (12-1) - He's a talented horse that was well thought of earlier in the season. He's been steadily declining and would require a huge bounce-back effort here.
Dominican 19 (20-1) - He's been steadily improving with impressive wins in his last two. The pedigree is there as is the late-running style. The only question is the trip from the outside and the weather. One worth watching.
Great Hunter 20 (15-1) - He's a consistent horse, in-the-money 8 of 9 times. He didn't get a clean look in his last, finishing 5th. Forgive that one and he'd be right in with the favorites. I like the price.
The Picks
It's not an easy race to pick with a ton of consistent performers, but here goes. I like Dominican, Great Hunter, Storm in May, and Sedgefield based on the weather and their running style. That said, this might be an even bigger shot in the dark than most Derbies and I'm throwing out there four horses that opened at 20-1, 15-1, 30-1, and 50-1. I guess that's why I'm not a professional handicapper.
I see an exciting race with a moderate pace and a huge pack within striking distance down the stretch. A big pack means that jockey's and luck are key. I'm taking Great Hunter to win it, with Dominican and Sedgefield rounding out the money. These are all long shots so watch the odds and get the most bang for your buck as post time nears. Good luck!
20 - 19 - 1
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
brrrBaseball
Well, if you're a sports talk radio listener as I am, by now you're throughly disgusted with talk of altering the MLB schedule. I know, it sucks that Cleveland had 27 games canceled already and had to travel to scenic Milwaukee to play a series. But let's get real:
1. MLB ain't shortening the schedule. won't happen, not now, not ever
2. Playing all the early games in domes and warm weather isn't feasible or fair. How would Minnesota feel about playing their last 18 on road to balance out their heavy April schedule?
3. Scheduled double-headers don't really draw that well and they cost owners a bunch of money in ticket sales, not to mention taxing ballparks, police, and stadium employees.
Now that we've settled that, I want to talk about the genius of Opening Day. April is a miserable month for watching baseball in most cities. It's cold, often rainy/snowy, and the games don't mean as much. Almost every team draws their smallest crowds in the month of April. EXCEPT FOR OPENING DAY. How did MLB ever pull this off? People jam the stands, selling out ballparks that won't be full again for the rest of the year. The Expos routinely sold out Opening Day even in their final years in Montreal. The weather isn't any better, the games often feature errors, short pitching outings, and intolerable conditions. Still, baseball fans come out in droves. There's just something majestic about that first pitch, first hit, first tailgate. Other sports have tried, but no major sport has managed to create such a hoopla around the first of many games. Kudos to you MLB - you've manged to make one of your least desirable products your most in demand. GENIUS
1. MLB ain't shortening the schedule. won't happen, not now, not ever
2. Playing all the early games in domes and warm weather isn't feasible or fair. How would Minnesota feel about playing their last 18 on road to balance out their heavy April schedule?
3. Scheduled double-headers don't really draw that well and they cost owners a bunch of money in ticket sales, not to mention taxing ballparks, police, and stadium employees.
Now that we've settled that, I want to talk about the genius of Opening Day. April is a miserable month for watching baseball in most cities. It's cold, often rainy/snowy, and the games don't mean as much. Almost every team draws their smallest crowds in the month of April. EXCEPT FOR OPENING DAY. How did MLB ever pull this off? People jam the stands, selling out ballparks that won't be full again for the rest of the year. The Expos routinely sold out Opening Day even in their final years in Montreal. The weather isn't any better, the games often feature errors, short pitching outings, and intolerable conditions. Still, baseball fans come out in droves. There's just something majestic about that first pitch, first hit, first tailgate. Other sports have tried, but no major sport has managed to create such a hoopla around the first of many games. Kudos to you MLB - you've manged to make one of your least desirable products your most in demand. GENIUS
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